Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
65% | 35% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
65% | 35% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 65% |
| Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Match O/U 22.5 | 37% |
| Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Match O/U 23.5 | 35% |
| Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Set 2 Winner | 34% |
| Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante | 18% |
| Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Set 1 Winner | 3% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, توقع: swedish open: sebastian ofner vs thiago agustin tirante stands at 65% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Sebastian Ofner and Thiago Agustin Tirante in the Swedish Open, originally scheduled for July 13, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market wil…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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