Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Bloomfield Hills: Roger Pascual vs Andres Martin Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Bloomfield Hills: Roger Pascual vs Andres Martin Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Bloomfield Hills: Roger Pascual vs Andres Martin Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Bloomfield Hills: Roger Pascual vs Andres Martin Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Bloomfield Hills: Roger Pascual vs Andres Martin Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Bloomfield Hills: Roger Pascual vs Andres Martin Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Bloomfield Hills: Roger Pascual vs Andres Martin | 0% |
| Bloomfield Hills: Roger Pascual vs Andres Martin Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Bloomfield Hills: Roger Pascual vs Andres Martin Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Bloomfield Hills: Roger Pascual vs Andres Martin Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Bloomfield Hills: Roger Pascual vs Andres Martin Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Bloomfield Hills: Roger Pascual vs Andres Martin Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Bloomfield Hills: Roger Pascual vs Andres Martin Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Bloomfield Hills: Roger Pascual vs Andres Martin Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Bloomfield Hills: Roger Pascual vs Andres Martin Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Roger Pascual’s match with Andres Martin in Bloomfield Hills now has a clear result on the public scoreboards: Martin won 2-1 on 23 July, which makes the market’s current **0% YES** price hard to justify unless the contract has not yet been updated for settlement[1]. The ranking gap was substantial even before play — Martin is listed at ATP 322 versus Pascual at ATP 808 — and that kind of differential is usually enough to make Martin the baseline favourite in a straight head-to-head, even without deeper form data[1].
For traders, the main issue is not form any more but **event handling**. The market terms say it only goes to 50-50 if the match was not played, ended level, or was delayed beyond seven days without a winner; once a completed result is published, that usually resolves the outcome unless there is a clerical mismatch in the event feed. The key catalyst to watch is whether the market operator is matching this Bloomfield Hills result to the correct fixture and whether there is any official tournament update on postponement, abandonment, or withdrawal — but the available match record already indicates a completed contest with Martin advancing[1][2].
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Bloomfield Hills: Roger Pascual vs Andres Martin. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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