Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Generali Open, Qualification: Jurij Rodionov vs Vitaliy Sachko | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Generali Open, Qualification: Jurij Rodionov vs Vitaliy Sachko Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Generali Open, Qualification: Jurij Rodionov vs Vitaliy Sachko Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Generali Open, Qualification: Jurij Rodionov vs Vitaliy Sachko Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Generali Open, Qualification: Jurij Rodionov vs Vitaliy Sachko Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Generali Open, Qualification: Jurij Rodionov vs Vitaliy Sachko Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Generali Open, Qualification: Jurij Rodionov vs Vitaliy Sachko Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Generali Open, Qualification: Jurij Rodionov vs Vitaliy Sachko Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Generali Open, Qualification: Jurij Rodionov vs Vitaliy Sachko Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Generali Open, Qualification: Jurij Rodionov vs Vitaliy Sachko Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Generali Open, Qualification: Jurij Rodionov vs Vitaliy Sachko Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Generali Open, Qualification: Jurij Rodionov vs Vitaliy Sachko Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Generali Open, Qualification: Jurij Rodionov vs Vitaliy Sachko Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Generali Open, Qualification: Jurij Rodionov vs Vitaliy Sachko Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Generali Open qualification match between Jurij Rodionov and Vitaliy Sachko on clay at Kitzbühel has already concluded, with Rodionov advancing 6–4, 7–6(4) after a tight contest that ended in the finals round on 19 July 2026[6]. The market’s 100% YES probability reflects this completed outcome, as Rodionov defeated Sachko in their only prior meeting—a 6–2, 6–2 win at the Thionville Challenger on hard court in March 2025[2][4][8].
Historically, qualification matches that resolve after play are treated as settled events in prediction markets, with no 50–50 contingency applied once a winner is determined. Rodionov’s 86% win rate against shared opponents versus Sachko’s 29% further underscores the disparity in form against common competition, reinforcing the certainty of the result[2]. Sachko’s recent form shows a 2–3 record over his last five matches, including a loss to Timofey Skatov on 12 July, while Rodionov finished 1–4 in the same span but secured a key win at Wimbledon qualifying before this match[2].
Traders should monitor official ATP tournament archives for final score confirmations and any post-match disciplinary notices, though no such issues are currently reported. With the match already played and Rodionov confirmed as the winner, the settlement is deterministic. No further catalysts—such as injury updates or schedule changes—will alter the outcome, as the event falls within the resolved window and the winner is unambiguous[2][6].
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Generali Open, Qualification: Jurij Rodionov vs Vitaliy Sachko. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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