Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ITF Roehampton: Charles Broom vs Oliver Tarvet | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| ITF Roehampton: Charles Broom vs Oliver Tarvet Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| ITF Roehampton: Charles Broom vs Oliver Tarvet Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF Roehampton: Charles Broom vs Oliver Tarvet Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| ITF Roehampton: Charles Broom vs Oliver Tarvet Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| ITF Roehampton: Charles Broom vs Oliver Tarvet Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| ITF Roehampton: Charles Broom vs Oliver Tarvet Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| ITF Roehampton: Charles Broom vs Oliver Tarvet Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| ITF Roehampton: Charles Broom vs Oliver Tarvet Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| ITF Roehampton: Charles Broom vs Oliver Tarvet Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| ITF Roehampton: Charles Broom vs Oliver Tarvet Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| ITF Roehampton: Charles Broom vs Oliver Tarvet Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| ITF Roehampton: Charles Broom vs Oliver Tarvet Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| ITF Roehampton: Charles Broom vs Oliver Tarvet Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Charles Broom and Oliver Tarvet are meeting in the Roehampton ITF men’s event, with the market currently pricing a straight Broom win as certain. That extreme move is consistent with the wider pre-match shape: Broom has been the higher-ranked player, around ATP 287, while Tarvet has been around ATP 436, and there is no prior head-to-head on record at professional level.[1][2][10]
The cleanest comparable read comes from Broom’s recent run through the draw. TennisStats lists a 2026 win rate of 66.1% for Broom and 77.8% for Tarvet, but the same live and completed-match feeds show Broom advancing through Roehampton and then beating Tarvet in the final by 6-3, 6-2.[1][2][15] That matters because it suggests the market is not just buying ranking gap; it is reacting to form, draw progression and the fact that Broom has already handled the opponent in this event.[2][12]
For traders, the main catalyst is whether the final was actually played to completion or whether any late schedule change, retirement or walkover alters settlement under the market rules. Flashscore and other live scoreboards show the fixture as scheduled at 09:30 UTC, while the event listings and result feeds indicate Broom-Tarvet was the Roehampton final, so confirmation of a completed result is the key dependency.[4][10][13] If the match was not completed, or if it was cancelled or pushed beyond the settlement window without a winner, the payout mechanics change materially.[11]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: ITF Roehampton: Charles Broom vs Oliver Tarvet. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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