توقع: Trump out as President by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump remains in office with a current crowd-implied probability of just 1% that he will resign or be removed before 31 July 2026. This low figure reflects the structural reality that his party controls both the House and Senate, making impeachment or removal under the 25th Amendment politically improbable without a catastrophic shift in congressional power.

Historically, presidential removals have only occurred when a president faced overwhelming bipartisan opposition or a complete loss of legislative support, as seen with Nixon’s resignation amid impeachment proceedings or the rare invocation of the 25th Amendment during temporary incapacitation. No U.S. president in the second term has been removed while retaining full congressional backing, and the constitutional threshold for removal—two-thirds majority in both chambers—remains a formidable barrier absent a dramatic political reversal.

Traders should monitor the November 2026 midterm elections, as a Democratic win in either chamber would significantly raise removal odds, alongside any public statements from Trump himself regarding impeachment risks. Recent commentary from Al Jazeera notes Trump’s own warning that losing midterms could lead to impeachment, making the election outcome the primary catalyst for any shift in this market’s probability [3]. Additionally, watch for any sudden health disclosures or Cabinet-level actions that might trigger 25th Amendment procedures, though these remain speculative without concrete evidence.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Trump out as President by July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.