توقع: Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Platform comparison

Market context

Global temperatures in 2026 are tracking to settle as the fourth hottest year since 1850, following a cooling shift driven by the ongoing La Niña pattern that has suppressed warmth relative to the record-breaking years of 2023 and 2024[2]. Historical data confirms 2025 as the third warmest year, meaning 2026 must surpass it to claim a higher rank, yet current models suggest it will likely remain slightly cooler[2]. The World Meteorological Organization notes an 86% probability that a year between 2026 and 2030 will exceed 2024 as the warmest on record, but this peak is not expected to materialise in 2026 itself, aligning with the market’s 34% YES probability for a top-three finish[1].

Traders should monitor the transition from La Niña to neutral or El Niño conditions through the third quarter, as a rapid shift could unexpectedly boost annual averages and push 2026 into second or first place[2]. The EU Climate Service reported January 2026 as the fifth warmest January globally, while May 2026 recorded the second-highest monthly temperature in the 177-year record, indicating significant volatility despite the broader cooling trend[3][8]. Key dependencies include the release of the full-year Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index by NOAA and NASA in early 2027, which will finalise the ranking regardless of later data revisions[2]. Any announcement of a strong El Niño onset before December would be the primary catalyst for a rank upgrade.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.