توقع: Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol will record its highest temperature on 17 August 2026, with settlement determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The market currently reflects zero probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting traders have not yet engaged with this specific date forecast.

August temperatures at Schiphol typically range between 18–24°C, though extremes have reached 30°C during heat waves. The station's 30-year August average high sits around 22°C. Historical data from 2023 shows a peak of 25.6°C on 17 August, whilst 2022 recorded 24.1°C on the same date. These precedents establish a baseline: most August 17ths cluster in the low-to-mid 20s, with occasional breaks into the upper 20s during warmer European patterns.

Traders should monitor European weather patterns from mid-August 2026, particularly the position of high-pressure systems over the continent. Persistent anticyclonic conditions favour above-average temperatures, whilst Atlantic low-pressure intrusions typically suppress maxima. The Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) will issue extended forecasts approximately 10–14 days before the settlement date, providing the primary catalyst for probability shifts. Any significant heat wave warnings across Western Europe in early August would signal elevated odds for higher temperature ranges, whilst cooler northerly flow patterns would favour lower ranges.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.