توقع: Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s heat on 10 August is usually driven by a familiar late-summer pattern: warm nights, a quick climb after sunrise, and a late-afternoon peak rather than an early-day maximum. Long-run August averages for the city sit around 31°C for daytime highs, and historical August 10 examples cluster in the low 30s Celsius, with many recent readings in the 30–34°C range and occasional touches higher than that.[4][6][14]

That makes the crowd-implied 0% YES on an outcome above the lower temperature bands look detached from the climatology. For context, Weather Underground’s Beijing history page shows a historical daily high record of 95°F, roughly 35°C, against a historical average high of 88°F, about 31°C, which implies that mid-30s Celsius is possible but materially less common than low-30s outcomes.[7] Comparable August 10 records from other weather datasets also show highs around 31–34°C, reinforcing that the central case is a warm, not extreme, day.[5][6]

The key catalysts are the actual station observations at Beijing Capital International Airport and the timing of the day’s maximum before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. Traders should watch the intraday Weather Underground “Daily Observations” table rather than the summary high/low box, because the market rules make the table the primary source if there is any mismatch.[7][18] Forecast products still matter for direction, and current August guidance for Beijing points to a forecast high near 93°F/34°C with a low around 75°F/24°C, which keeps the main uncertainty in whether the airport reaches the mid-30s Celsius band or tops out closer to 31–33°C.[16][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.