توقع: Highest temperature in Beijing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 11 August 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning readings taken after the market's cut-off time will not factor into resolution. The specific temperature range containing the peak daily high will determine the outcome, with Weather Underground's primary data source taking precedence over any summary figures displayed elsewhere on the platform.

August in Beijing typically sees peak temperatures between 29°C and 34°C, though extremes have occasionally pushed toward 37°C during heat waves. Historical August records at the airport station show considerable year-to-year variation; the 2010s saw several instances of temperatures exceeding 35°C in early August, whilst cooler years have settled in the 30–32°C band. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either a specific temperature threshold being set very high or uncertainty about which range will ultimately contain the day's maximum.

Monitoring real-time weather forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models (GFS, ECMWF) in the days leading up to 11 August will be essential. Seasonal patterns show that mid-August can coincide with the tail end of Beijing's summer monsoon influence, which occasionally brings cloud cover and precipitation that suppress afternoon highs. Any significant weather system moving through northern China in early August could shift expectations materially, as could the broader atmospheric setup—high-pressure systems typically drive the hottest readings.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Beijing on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.