توقع: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing is forecast to experience a thundershower on 13 July 2026, with temperatures expected to peak at 32°C before dropping to 24°C overnight, a condition that suppresses the likelihood of extreme heat[9]. This specific weather pattern aligns with the market’s current 0% probability for a YES outcome, as rain and cloud cover typically prevent temperatures from breaching the higher thresholds required for a positive resolution in similar heat-range markets.

Historical data for Beijing in July shows average highs of 31°C, with the month’s typical range spanning 23°C to 31°C, though the hottest days can climb considerably higher under clear skies[4][6]. While ensemble forecasts from major models suggest a 30% chance for the high to fall in the low 30s °C, the frontrunner outcome on comparable platforms is 34°C at 42%, indicating that the 0% probability here likely reflects a specific range definition or a misunderstanding of the settlement criteria rather than an absolute impossibility of heat[2].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground and local forecasts for any deviation from the thundershower prediction, as a shift to dry, sunny conditions could rapidly increase temperatures toward the 34–35°C range seen in adjacent July dates[2][8]. The settlement depends entirely on the highest recorded temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport Station, so any sudden change in cloud cover or wind patterns before the 12:00 UTC cutoff will be the primary catalyst for price movement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.