توقع: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's summer heat peaks in mid-July, with historical records showing the city regularly experiences temperatures exceeding 35°C during this period. The Capital International Airport Station, situated in the north-eastern suburbs, typically records slightly cooler readings than central urban areas due to its location and elevation, though it remains subject to the same continental high-pressure systems that dominate northern China in July. Historical data from Wunderground shows that on 21 July in prior years, temperatures at this station have ranged between 28°C and 37°C, with the most common outcomes clustering in the 32–36°C band.

The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting confirmation of the specific temperature range options available for settlement, or the market interface has not yet populated the full range of possible outcomes. July 2026 forecasting remains inherently uncertain at this distance; however, seasonal climatology and the station's historical performance provide the primary framework for assessment. Traders should monitor whether the market's resolution categories align with typical Beijing summer patterns—particularly whether the highest likely range (32–36°C) is adequately represented as an option. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 21 July 2026, allowing only morning observations from the airport station to count toward resolution.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.