توقع: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's weather in late July sits firmly within the city's peak summer period, when daily highs routinely exceed 30°C. The Capital International Airport station, the official measurement point for this market, has recorded temperatures of 35–38°C during comparable late-July dates over the past decade. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the available temperature bands or have positioned themselves defensively ahead of settlement. Historical data from Wunderground shows that Beijing experiences relatively consistent thermal patterns in this window, with extreme heat events (above 40°C) occurring infrequently but not unprecedented.

The settlement window closes on 28 July 2026 at midday UTC, meaning the market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at the airport station throughout that calendar day. Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts and Wunderground's historical records for the specific year leading into settlement. Atmospheric conditions in late July are typically dominated by the East Asian summer monsoon, though occasional high-pressure systems can drive temperatures sharply upward. The current flat probability distribution may reflect genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will capture the day's peak, rather than confidence in any particular outcome.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.