توقع: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport on 6 July 2026, with the current crowd-implied probability for a specific outcome sitting at 0%, suggesting traders doubt that particular range will be hit. Historical data for Beijing in July shows daily highs averaging around 88°F (31°C), rarely dropping below 78°F (26°C) or exceeding 96°F (36°C), with the month’s peak average occurring on 17 July [2]. Recent records indicate extreme volatility; in 2023, Beijing reached 40°C (104°F), and China overall logged 52.2°C in Xinjiang, marking a national record for extreme heat [3][4]. Despite these spikes, the 0% probability implies the market expects temperatures to stay within a narrower, more typical band, likely around 33°C, which aligns with the frontrunner on other platforms [1].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from the southern suburb observatory, which recently reported 40.1°C at 13:15 on 6 July, a figure that could shift expectations if sustained or repeated at the airport station [3]. Key catalysts include official weather bulletins from the China Meteorological Administration and humidity levels, as high moisture in July can amplify perceived heat and push temperatures toward record highs [5]. Additionally, watch for any announcements regarding heatwave advisories or changes in monitoring protocols, as these dependencies directly influence the resolution source from Wunderground [6]. The recent trend of China recording the highest number of hot days in six decades, with an average of 4.1 days exceeding 35°C, further underscores the potential for sudden spikes that could invalidate current low-probability assumptions [7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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