توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu's August weather typically peaks in the high 20s to low 30s Celsius, with the city experiencing its warmest conditions during mid-summer. Historical data from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport shows August daily maxima consistently ranging between 28–35°C, though extreme heat events pushing above 37°C occur sporadically during particularly intense heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the market's upper threshold to fall below historical norms for this date, or reflects uncertainty around which specific temperature band the settlement will target.

August 11th sits within Chengdu's peak summer period, when subtropical monsoon patterns and urban heat effects combine to drive afternoon temperatures upward. Recent summers have shown variability: whilst some years produce sustained 32–34°C conditions through mid-August, others see cooler spells driven by cloud cover or moisture influx from the East Asian summer monsoon. The precise settlement threshold matters considerably—a band set at 35°C or above would align with hotter historical outcomes, whilst anything below 30°C would require unusual cooling.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts from late July onwards, particularly any signals about monsoon intensity or high-pressure system positioning over central China during early August. Chengdu's elevation and surrounding topography create microclimatic effects that can suppress temperatures relative to surrounding plains, making local airport station readings the critical data point rather than broader regional estimates.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.