توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s airport station is forecast to sit in its usual August heat band, with multiple services pointing to highs around 31–34°C on 9 August and very little evidence of a sharp cool-down. Current market pricing at 0% for the lower-temperature side looks hard to reconcile with the published forecasts: AccuWeather has Chengdu’s August highs ranging from 82° to 103°F, while other live and daily forecast pages cluster around the low-30s Celsius for today[1][3][4][5].

The historical frame also argues against an outsized downside move. Long-run August normals for Chengdu sit near 30°C, and weather-by-date pages put the 9 August average high around 30–31°C, with record highs well above the expected range[2][4][15]. That leaves the main question not whether the city is warm, but whether afternoon convection or rain trims the peak enough to keep it out of the top end of the forecast distribution; several sources still show thunderstorm or shower risk alongside a hot, humid profile[13][14][15].

For traders, the key catalysts are the airport observation updates themselves, since the market settles on the highest temperature in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table rather than the headline high/low summary. In practice, the decisive move is whether Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport posts a late-afternoon maximum of 33–35°C before the observation window closes, or whether cloud cover and showers cap the top reading nearer 31–32°C[16][19]. The next published datapoints after the local daytime peak are likely to matter more than model forecasts once the station has reported its daily maximum[16].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.