توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 13?

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Market context

Chengdu is experiencing a heatwave on 13 July 2026, with current forecasts predicting a maximum of 99°F (37.2°C) and afternoon showers that may briefly suppress peak temperatures [5]. Real-time aviation observations from the Shuangliu International Airport recorded temperatures climbing to 79°F (26.1°C) by 4:00 am local time, indicating a warm start to the day before the afternoon peak [6]. The market’s 0% probability for a “YES” outcome likely reflects a specific threshold definition in the user interface rather than a belief that no heat will occur, as early-July data shows frequent readings between 34–36°C under similar atmospheric conditions [2].

Historical July climatology for Chengdu typically centers on 30–32°C, but recent anomalies have pushed daily highs into the 34–36°C range, with the market currently favouring 38°C at 34% probability and 37°C at 28% [2]. This suggests traders are pricing in a significant deviation from the long-term average, driven by the current high-pressure system that has sustained temperatures well above the seasonal norm [1]. The 0% figure may stem from a misunderstanding of the resolution ranges or a technical display error, given that 37°C and 38°C are the leading outcomes with substantial implied probability.

Traders should monitor the timing and intensity of the forecasted afternoon thunderstorms, which could lower the recorded maximum if they arrive before the daily peak [5]. The settlement relies on Wunderground data for the Shuangliu station, so any discrepancy between forecast models and actual station readings will determine the final resolution [2]. With the settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC on 13 July, the critical window for temperature measurement is the late morning to early afternoon local time, when the heatwave is expected to reach its zenith before potential storm interference.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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