توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu experiences its peak summer heat in July, with the city routinely recording highs that push into the mid-30s Celsius under intense solar radiation and high humidity. The market asks for the specific maximum temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 20 July 2026, a date that historically falls within the region’s hottest window. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific outcome suggests traders are either uncertain of the exact range or believe the event is too distant to price accurately, despite the predictable seasonal pattern.

Historically, July in Chengdu sees average maximum temperatures of 31°C, though record days frequently climb to 35°C or higher, often described as “bochornoso” due to 75% relative humidity and limited cloud cover [1]. Comparable cases from recent years show that temperatures on 20 July typically land between 32°C and 36°C, with rain probability around 50% potentially moderating peaks if precipitation occurs. The 0% probability implies a lack of consensus on whether this year will follow the norm or deviate due to anomalous weather patterns.

Traders should monitor daily Wunderground updates for the Shuangliu station as the settlement window approaches, watching for early July temperature trends and any official meteorological forecasts from China’s National Meteorological Centre. A sudden shift in humidity, wind speed averaging 13.1 km/h, or unexpected rain could significantly alter the final reading [1]. No major announcements or line-up changes apply here, but real-time weather bulletins and historical daily records will be the primary catalysts for price movement as the date nears.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

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