توقع: Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s August heat usually sits in the mid-30s Celsius, and the market is resolving to the **highest observation** at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport rather than the broader day-high summary. That matters because the airport can briefly spike above the published forecast high if convective heating breaks through cloud or if thunderstorms clear early enough for a sharp late-afternoon rise. Long-run climate data for Chongqing shows August as the hottest month, with typical maxima around 33.6–34°C, while separate weather guides put usual daytime peaks in the 35–42°C range during hot spells and note extreme highs above 40°C in severe heat events.[5][8][14][6]

The current 0% YES price is hard to reconcile with the available forecast guidance, which points to a very warm day rather than an outlier cool one. AccuWeather’s Chongqing forecast shows around 95°F/35°C for 10 August, with periods of clouds and sunshine and thunderstorms early in the day, and its 10-day outlook still clusters the day near the mid-30s Celsius.[1][9][13] Market commentary on Polymarket also says latest model guidance from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration points to a daytime maximum near 34–35°C at the airport, with a subtropical ridge supporting warm, humid air.[2]

For traders, the main catalysts are the airport station’s actual daily observations, not headline city forecasts, and the timing of the first reading for 11 August because revisions are only considered until that datapoint appears.[2] The practical swing factor is whether morning thunderstorms leave enough cloud cover to cap the afternoon maximum near 34°C, or whether clearing allows the airport to touch 35°C or above; that is where the settlement bucket is most likely to move.[2][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.