توقع: Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing faces another peak of summer heat as traders assess the likelihood of extreme temperatures on 17 July 2026, with the market currently pricing any outcome above the lowest range at near-zero probability for the highest single reading. Historical data shows Chongqing regularly hits 33–35°C in mid-July, with the city often ranking among China’s hottest during this period. The current crowd-implied 0% YES probability for the highest temperature suggests the market expects a reading below the lowest listed threshold, yet recent climatology contradicts this, as 34°C and 33°C currently lead the market at 21% and 20% respectively, indicating a strong tilt toward those ranges rather than an absence of heat [1].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, the designated resolution source, as cloud cover and wind shifts in the coming hours could quickly alter the peak temperature. A recent two-week weather review for Chongqing shows sunny conditions with temperatures around 84°F (29°C), but mid-July typically sees spikes well above this baseline [2]. The key catalyst is the 12:00 UTC settlement deadline on 17 July, after which no further data will be accepted; any sudden heatwave announcement from local meteorological services or a rapid rise in afternoon readings on Wunderground would immediately reprice the market away from the current 0% baseline.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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