توقع: Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s airport reading is the key number here, and the market is effectively asking whether the city can push into the upper end of its usual July heat range rather than merely stay hot. July in Chongqing is generally the hottest and most humid part of the year, with average highs around 33°C, but travel guides still note many daytime readings in the mid-to-high 30s and occasional extremes nearer 40°C, which keeps the 38–39°C band well within historical summer territory.[2][3][4]

That makes the current 0% implied chance of the lower buckets look more like a statement about the day’s specific setup than about Chongqing climate in general. The most relevant comparison is the city’s own July pattern: frequent rain, high humidity, and strong heat can coexist, and the monthly average includes several heavy thunderstorms even as temperatures remain elevated.[2][3] In practical terms, any cloud cover, rain band, or weaker-than-expected sunshine would cap the maximum; a clear, dry, and stagnant afternoon would favour the higher outcomes instead.[2][4]

For traders, the main catalysts are the live airport observations through the afternoon and any short-term forecast shifts before the settlement window closes, because the resolution source is the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station record for the day.[1] The market is currently led by 39°C at 42%, with 38°C next at 31%, so the line is already pricing a strong heat outcome rather than an outright heat record.[1] The most important dependencies are whether peak heating lines up with minimal convective cloud, and whether late-day showers arrive soon enough to trim the airport maximum before it is locked in.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 27?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.