توقع: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport is the event location, and the market resolves on the hottest reading logged there on 1 August. With settlement tied to a single-day maximum rather than a daily mean, the key issue is whether the airport gets a brief heat spike before cloud, rain or thunderstorm activity trims the ceiling.

August in Guangzhou is normally hot enough that the market should not be read through a cold-season lens. Long-run climate data put typical August highs around 33°C to 33.2°C, with average lows near 25°C to 27°C, while broader city guides describe the month as hot, humid and wet, with frequent rain and typhoon influence[1][16][17][18][20]. That makes 0% for a high-temperature outcome hard to square with seasonal norms: the baseline expectation is for a reading well above anything cool enough to support an extreme low maximum. Comparable August records also show that daily highs can run into the mid-30s Celsius on hot spells, with some days reaching 35°C to 36°C in Guangzhou city-centre references[4][20].

The main trader watchpoints are the short-term forecast, any rain band crossing the Pearl River Delta, and whether afternoon convection develops early enough to cap the airport maximum. AccuWeather’s current August 2026 outlook for Guangzhou shows daily highs mostly between 89°F and 93°F, roughly 32°C to 34°C, which is consistent with a high ceiling even if showers arrive later[10]. For a market ending at 12:00 UTC, the relevant window is the morning-to-early-afternoon period in Guangzhou, so any overnight cloud cover, early precipitation, or a suppressed marine air mass matters more than the full-day forecast.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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