توقع: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 10?

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Market context

Guangzhou’s airport temperature for 10 August will hinge on whether the city gets another very hot, humid day or a rain-cooled one. The first live read from AccuWeather this morning shows 100°F/86°F, with “hot with clouds and sun”, while its monthly page points to a 100° high and 86° low for today, which is consistent with a peak around 38°C rather than the 33°C monthly norm.[18][15][19]

That matters because Guangzhou’s August climate usually clusters in the low 30s Celsius, but extreme spikes are not rare. Weather databases put the month’s average high at about 33°C, with some recent Augusts reaching 34°C and long-run record highs around 38.4°C, so a 37°C-plus outcome is plausible when the subtropical heat ridge holds and rainfall stays limited.[2][13][12] Recent historical examples also show how quickly the distribution can shift on a single day: Guangzhou has posted low-to-mid 30s on many August dates, but individual hot spells have pushed into the high 30s, keeping the upper temperature bands relevant for settlement.[7][12]

For traders, the main catalysts are any intraday forecast revisions, cloud and rainfall timing, and whether the airport station records its highest reading before convective showers or sea-breeze easing arrive. The market resolves from Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table for Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, so the key line is the maximum observed Celsius value there, not the summary “Day High & Low” figure.[14] If the morning heat persists and showers stay late, the upper ranges retain value; if earlier cloud build-up or rain arrives, the market can settle lower than the headline forecast suggests.[18][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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