توقع: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou will experience peak summer heat on 21 July 2026, with the settlement hinging on the single highest temperature recorded at Baiyun International Airport Station throughout that calendar day. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific threshold ranges available or treating this as a low-conviction market given the distance from resolution.

Guangzhou's July climate is remarkably consistent. Historical data from Baiyun Airport shows July daily highs cluster between 32–35°C, with extreme readings rarely exceeding 37°C. The city's subtropical monsoon pattern produces little day-to-day volatility during mid-summer; temperature swings of more than 2–3°C between consecutive days are uncommon. This stability means the resolution will likely fall within the tightest temperature bands offered, making the current flat probability distribution potentially misleading about actual likelihood across individual ranges.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts from mid-July 2026, which typically become reliable 10–14 days ahead. Any tropical system approaching southern China could suppress temperatures by 3–5°C through cloud cover and precipitation, though such systems are statistically rare during late July. Urban heat island effects at the airport station itself—influenced by runway activity and surrounding infrastructure—create a baseline roughly 1–2°C warmer than surrounding rural areas, a factor worth isolating when comparing historical analogues. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning early-morning readings won't influence the final figure.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.