توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's weather on 13 August 2026 will be measured against historical August temperatures recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory, with the market resolving to whichever temperature band contains the day's absolute daily maximum in Celsius. August is consistently Hong Kong's hottest month, with mean daily maxima typically between 31–32°C, though individual days frequently exceed 33°C during the summer monsoon season.

Historical data from the Observatory shows August daily maxima have ranged from 28.3°C to 36.3°C over recent decades, with readings above 34°C occurring in roughly one-third of August days across a typical year. The current 0% probability assigned to higher temperature ranges suggests the crowd expects a cooler-than-average day, possibly influenced by tropical cyclone activity or monsoon shifts that can suppress peak temperatures. Comparable August dates in 2023 and 2024 recorded maxima of 32.1°C and 33.2°C respectively, establishing a baseline for typical summer conditions.

Traders should monitor typhoon forecasts issued by the Hong Kong Observatory in early August, as tropical systems approaching the region can dramatically reduce daytime temperatures through cloud cover and wind patterns. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 13 August, but the Observatory typically publishes final daily temperature extracts within 24–48 hours, meaning resolution may be delayed pending official data release. Humidity levels and upper-air wind patterns during the preceding week will also signal whether atmospheric conditions favour above or below-average heating on the settlement date.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.