توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 20 August 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This settlement depends entirely on the Observatory's official daily maximum temperature reading, published in their Daily Extract dataset after the specified date closes.

August temperatures in Hong Kong cluster consistently in the 32–34°C range during peak summer, with absolute daily maxima rarely exceeding 35°C even during heat waves. Historical data from the Observatory shows that temperatures above 36°C occur roughly once every five to ten years in August, whilst readings below 31°C are uncommon but possible during monsoon disruptions. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or uncertainty about which range will settle. Comparable August dates from recent years provide the most reliable calibration: the Observatory's archives show variability of 2–3°C between consecutive years, meaning historical norms alone do not constrain outcomes tightly.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone warnings issued in early August 2026, as these directly influence daily maxima. Typhoon activity or monsoon shifts can suppress temperatures by 3–5°C, whilst high-pressure systems can elevate them similarly. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 20 August, but the Observatory typically publishes final daily extracts within 24–48 hours of the calendar date, meaning resolution may be delayed if data release schedules slip.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.