توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s top temperature on 3 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s final **Absolute Daily Max** reading for the day, measured to one decimal place and published later in the relevant Daily Extract. With the market currently implying **0% YES**, the price is effectively treating the outcome as already out of reach, but the settlement will depend on the exact maximum recorded before the 12:00 UTC window closes and on when the Observatory finalises the data.[8][10]

Historically, August in Hong Kong is firmly in the hot season, with typical daytime highs around the low 30s Celsius and occasional surges much higher when conditions turn especially dry and stagnant.[5][6][13] Recent reporting shows how quickly the city can break into the mid-30s: the Observatory has already logged multiple hottest-day-of-the-year readings in 2026, including 34.3C and 35.6C, while areas outside the central station have reached even higher peaks.[9][11][12] That pattern matters because the market resolves off the Observatory’s official maximum, not neighbourhood readings, so sharp local spikes only count if they are captured in the source station data.[2][8]

The main catalyst is the weather pattern over the next 24 hours: if a hot ridge, subsiding air, or weak winds persist, the Observatory can still post a high daily maximum, but cloud, rain, or a passing tropical disturbance would cap the upside.[10][19] Traders should watch the Observatory’s regional weather updates and the Daily Extract publication timing, because the result cannot settle until the 3 August data is uploaded and confirmed.[8][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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