توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s heat on 6 August will be measured by the Hong Kong Observatory’s final daily extract, and the relevant number is the day’s **absolute daily maximum** in one-decimal Celsius. The market is already priced at **0% YES**, which is consistent with a forecast profile that sits well below the levels usually needed to threaten the top end of the August range. AccuWeather’s current Hong Kong view has 6 August around **31°C/27°C**, while other August climate references put the city’s typical early-August maximum in the low 30s, with a normal 6 August mean maximum of **31.6°C**.[1][2]

The historical frame does not point to an extreme outlier unless conditions line up for a very hot, settled spell. In August 2025, the Observatory said showery weather persisted on 6 August before a hotter, finer run later in the week; the month’s peak only reached **34.4°C** on 10 August.[3] In 2024, the Observatory described August as exceptionally hot overall, with a mean daily maximum of **32.3°C**, which shows that hot months do occur, but not necessarily on the first day traders are watching.[5] For this market, the key comparison is whether 6 August lands near the low-30s norm or becomes one of those upper-30s-style spikes that can shift the resolution band.[2][9]

Traders should watch the Observatory’s own short-range updates, because the outcome depends on whether rain, cloud and onshore flow suppress the afternoon high or whether a drier, more stable pattern develops. The available forecast data for 6 August currently leans warm but not extreme, with some sources even flagging showers rather than a heat spike.[1][8] The market cannot settle until the Observatory publishes the finalized daily extract for 6 August, so late changes in the official record matter more than headline forecasts once the day has passed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.