توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s official reading for 8 August will come from the Observatory’s daily extract, with the market settling on the temperature band containing the day’s **Absolute Daily Max** in Celsius. The current 0% YES price implies traders see an unlikely path to a top-end outcome, but Hong Kong has clear precedent for sharp late-summer spikes: the Observatory set an all-time record of **36.3°C** on 8 August 2015, beating the old mark of 36.1°C from 1900[1]. More recently, the city has also produced extreme local highs well above the central Observatory reading, including 36–38°C pockets across the territory during hot spells[1][18].

For context, August in Hong Kong is already the warmest part of the year, and the 1991–2020 normals show an average maximum of **31.7°C** on 8 August, with a mean air temperature of 29.0°C[6]. That makes the market most sensitive to whether the city gets strong sunshine, weak rainfall influence, and inland heating rather than a typical humid, cloudier summer day. The close analogue from 7 August 2026 was a maximum of **33°C** at the Observatory, which sits near the seasonal norm rather than in record territory[8]. A move several degrees higher would require a notably hotter synoptic setup than the recent reading.

The key catalysts are the Observatory’s daytime updates, any very hot weather warnings, and the eventual publication of the finalized daily extract, because this market cannot resolve until the official data is posted[2][9]. Traders should watch for the 8 a.m., 1 p.m. and afternoon temperature readings, as well as the regional spread across inland and urban stations, since Hong Kong often sees materially higher highs outside the Observatory itself[2][5]. If the day follows the recent pattern of mid-30s territory at outlying sites but only low-30s at the Observatory, that supports the lower bands rather than a record-style finish[5][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.