توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong faces its peak summer heat on 21 July 2026, with the Hong Kong Observatory set to record the day’s absolute maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. Historical data shows July is typically the hottest month in the region, with daily maxima frequently exceeding 33°C and occasionally reaching 35°C or higher during intense heatwaves. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders expect the temperature to fall outside the specific range offered, likely because the market’s threshold is set unusually high relative to recent trends.

Comparable cases from the past decade reveal that while extreme heat events occur, temperatures above 36°C on 21 July remain rare. For instance, in 2017 and 2020, Hong Kong recorded highs of 35.2°C and 34.9°C respectively on similar dates, but neither breached 36°C. The seasonal forecast for July–September 2026 indicates temperatures are expected to be normal to above-normal, with a slightly higher chance of above-normal rainfall, which could moderate peak temperatures [2]. Traders should monitor the Observatory’s upcoming “Daily Extract” publication for the finalized “Absolute Daily Max” value, as settlement depends entirely on this official data once released [1]. Any sudden shift in ENSO conditions or unforecasted cloud cover could act as a catalyst, altering the expected temperature range before the 2026-07-21T12:00:00Z deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.