توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s official afternoon maximum on 31 July is set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily extract, so the key number is the Observatory reading rather than a city-wide average. July is usually one of the hottest months in Hong Kong, with climatology showing average highs around 32°C and historical July extremes reaching 35.7°C, while July 2023 produced a monthly peak of 36.1°C at the Observatory.[3][6][7]

The market’s 0% YES price reflects how tight the settlement condition is for this specific range, not how hot the city may feel. The Observatory’s 2 p.m. bulletin for 31 July already showed 31°C at the station, with several inland and New Territories locations at 31–33°C, but the settlement source is the final daily maximum at the Observatory and can still move later in the day.[9] Recent coverage also noted July as the city’s hottest month on record in the wake of extreme heat, which reinforces that upper-30s readings are possible in the right setup.[1]

For traders, the main catalysts are the Observatory’s late-afternoon and evening updates, followed by the published Daily Extract once the day is finalised. The market cannot resolve until that extract is posted, so any late heat spike, sea-breeze shift, or thunderstorm outflow before the close matters more than earlier readings.[11][14] The current setup is therefore a live weather-data trade rather than a static seasonal one: even a warm morning does not settle the outcome if the official high lands in a different range.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.