توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the daily maximum temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 6 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. Historical data shows Hong Kong’s July highs typically range from 30.4°C to 32.0°C (86.7°F to 89.6°F), with seasonal forecasts for July–September 2026 indicating normal to above-normal temperatures due to current ENSO conditions[4][5]. The crowd-implied 0% probability for any specific range appears inconsistent with these baselines, as even modest heatwaves regularly push daily maxima into the 31–32°C band, making a zero-probability stance statistically fragile unless extreme cooling is forecast[1][5].

Traders must monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s finalised “Daily Extract” for the absolute daily max, which is only published after data verification[8]. Key catalysts include the hourly weather bulletin at 2 a.m. on 6 July, which noted 29°C and 80% humidity with warnings of widespread heavy rain within hours—a factor that could suppress daytime highs if rain persists[2]. Recent forecasts predict mainly cloudy conditions with light rain patches, potentially capping temperatures near 30–31°C rather than exceeding 32°C[7][10]. The resolution depends entirely on this official dataset, so any delay in publication or revision of the “Daily Extract” will directly impact market settlement timing[8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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