توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the measurement of Hong Kong’s peak daily temperature on 7 July 2026, recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and resolved in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specified range, likely due to expectations of cooler conditions or data uncertainty.

Historically, July in Hong Kong sees average highs near 30°C (86°F), with recent forecasts for July 2026 indicating daily highs between 29°C and 35°C (86°–95°F)[1]. Climate models project normal to above-normal temperatures for July–September 2026, driven by long-term warming trends and current ENSO conditions[2]. The coldest day in early July typically dips to 25.8°C, while peak heat often occurs later in the month[3]. These patterns frame the 0% probability as a bet against an extreme high, not a baseline expectation.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s “Daily Extract” publication schedule, as resolution depends on finalized data availability[8]. Recent weather outlooks note low visibility and stable temperatures around 19°C–28°C on 4 July, hinting at potential variability[6]. No official suspensions or injuries affect data collection, but delays in the “Absolute Daily Max” release could postpone settlement. Watch for updates on the Observatory’s climatological services portal for the final figure[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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