توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the measurement of Hong Kong’s highest temperature on 9 July 2026, recorded in degrees Celsius to one decimal by the Hong Kong Observatory. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific high range suggests traders expect the temperature to fall outside that bracket, likely due to prevailing forecasts of normal to above-normal heat across the region[2].

Historically, July in Hong Kong sees average highs near 31.7°C (89°F), with recent years recording peaks up to 35.4°C in May and daily highs consistently between 30–33°C[1][9]. The 2026 seasonal forecast explicitly anticipates normal to above-normal temperatures, influenced by current ENSO conditions, making extreme lows unlikely and reinforcing the 0% probability for unusually cool ranges[2].

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily extract for 9 July, which finalises the “Absolute Daily Max” value once published[9]. A key catalyst is the upcoming weekend weather outlook, which currently predicts a temporary dip to 13°C in southern China, though this may not significantly impact Hong Kong’s urban heat island effect[4]. The final resolution depends entirely on the Observatory’s official data release, with no alternative sources accepted[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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