توقع: Highest temperature in Houston on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s afternoon heat has remained firmly in the low 90s, with the National Weather Service and Weather Underground both pointing to a **92°F** high around Hobby Airport and AccuWeather keeping the day’s forecast in a **90–97°F** band for August in the city. That leaves the market’s crowd-implied **0%** on the coldest bucket looking detached from the prevailing setup, unless the observed maximum was capped well below forecast by cloud cover, thunderstorms or an early coastal change in conditions.[4][9][10][1]

The main comparison is with Houston’s normal August pattern: the climate report for Hobby Airport puts the record maximum for 9 August at **105°F** and the normal high at **94°F**, which underlines how unusual an outcome below **80°F** would be for this date. Weather Underground’s own conditions page also described 9 August as “nearly the same as yesterday”, suggesting a stable, seasonal heat profile rather than a sharp cool-down. In practice, traders should read the market through the observed hourly evolution at Hobby Airport, not the headline summary high, because the contract resolves off the **Daily Observations** table.[13][10]

The key catalysts are any late-day thunderstorms, a sudden increase in cloud cover, or a revision to the station observations published by Weather Underground before the following day’s first datapoint locks the result. The NWS forecast for Houston on 9 August called for **chance of thunderstorms** with a high near **92°F** and a warm night, which supports the higher temperature buckets unless convection develops earlier than expected.[9][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Houston on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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