توقع: Highest temperature in Madrid on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Madrid is currently experiencing an intense heatwave that has pushed temperatures well above seasonal averages, with the city recording highs of 42°C on 5 and 6 July 2026[3]. This extreme event, described as the first official heatwave of 2026, saw temperatures reach 40°C in Madrid on 21 June and has kept daily highs above 40°C through at least 7 July[3][5]. The first six months of 2026 were Spain’s hottest ever recorded, with temperatures 1.6°C above normal, setting a precedent for record-breaking summer conditions[10].

Historical data from early July 2026 shows Madrid hitting 42°C, nearly 9°C above the average high of 35°C (95°F), while Barcelona recorded 40.5°C on 8 July, its highest maximum since records began[3][6]. Given this trajectory, the 0% crowd-implied probability for any specific temperature range on 12 July appears inconsistent with the current climatic form, as the region remains under sustained extreme heat with clear skies and no rainfall expected[3]. Traders should monitor daily updates from Wunderground for the Barajas Airport Station, particularly any official heat alerts from Spanish authorities, as the heatwave has already triggered emergency service alerts and warnings against outdoor exposure during peak hours[3][8]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 12 July, meaning the final reading will capture the peak afternoon temperature, which in recent days has consistently exceeded 40°C[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Madrid on July 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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