توقع: Highest temperature in Manila on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Manila’s temperature on 10 August is being shaped by a wet, humid southwest-monsoon pattern rather than a clean heat-up, which matters because the market settles on the highest reading in Weather Underground’s daily observations at Ninoy Aquino International Airport. Morning conditions are already rain-affected, with AccuWeather and Time and Date both showing showers or thunderstorms and forecast highs clustered around the mid- to high-20s Celsius, while PAGASA’s outlook for Metro Manila points to around 32°C at most under a chance of rain.[2][3][5][10]

That backdrop makes a sub-30°C outcome plausible, but not locked in: Manila’s August climatology still supports daytime highs near the high-20s to low-30s, and WeatherSpark describes August highs as typically around 87°F, or roughly 30.5°C.[17] For comparable context, PAGASA recorded a 28.7°C maximum at its Science Garden station in a recent 24-hour period, which is a reminder that monsoon cloud, rain and wind can cap the day well below the seasonal average.[12] The crowd’s 0% price on YES implies an extreme view, but the live forecast suite does not support treating a higher reading as impossible.[1][3][5]

Traders should watch the airport observations through the afternoon, because the settlement source is the day’s recorded maximum rather than a summary forecast figure, and late spikes matter if showers briefly clear. The key dependencies are timing of thunderstorms, any updated PAGASA short-range advisories, and whether the station reports a warmer reading before the first 11 August datapoint is published, since revisions within the window may still count until then.[10][15] Current weather reports already show rain, high humidity and breezy conditions, all of which favour limited upside unless convection eases later.[2][6][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Manila on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.