توقع: Highest temperature in Manila on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Manila’s highest temperature on 11 July 2026 will be measured at Ninoy Aquino International Airport, with settlement based on Wunderground’s daily peak for the RPLL station. The crowd currently assigns 0% probability to any outcome below 29°C, yet historical July highs in Manila typically cluster between 31°C and 35°C, with 32°C–34°C being most common [9]. This suggests the 0% YES probability for lower ranges may reflect a mispricing, as early-July records show afternoon highs rarely dip below 30°C in recent years, including a peak of 35.4°C (94.8°F) on 3 July 2026 [2].

Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground updates for RPLL as the day progresses, since settlement hinges on the single highest recorded temperature before 12:00 UTC. Urbanisation in Metro Manila has elevated heat-health risk indices, pushing extreme heat events higher than pre-2000 baselines [8]. While the Philippines’ absolute record remains 42.2°C in Tuguegarao (1912, 1969), Manila’s airport station rarely exceeds 37°C even in peak summer [3][5]. The key catalyst is whether cloud cover or monsoon activity suppresses temperatures below the 31°C–34°C historical norm, which would contradict the market’s current 41% weighting on 29°C as the frontrunner [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Manila on July 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.