توقع: Highest temperature in Miami on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Miami International Airport will record its highest temperature on 13 August 2026, with the settlement determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The market resolves to whichever temperature bracket contains the peak reading logged at that station throughout the calendar day.

August in Miami typically produces daily highs between 89–93°F, with the airport station consistently recording temperatures in this range during the month's second week. Historical data from prior years shows that extreme heat events pushing above 95°F occur in fewer than 5% of August days at Miami International, whilst readings below 88°F are similarly rare. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an outcome at the lower or upper extremes of the range, or the market has insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Comparable August 13th observations from the past decade cluster around 90–92°F, providing a baseline against which any deviation should be measured.

The primary variables affecting the outcome are Atlantic tropical weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures in early August 2026. Any developing tropical system or unusual high-pressure system could shift conditions materially. The National Weather Service issues updated forecasts approximately 10 days before the settlement date, which will be the critical catalyst for traders reassessing probabilities. Traders should monitor tropical cyclone activity across the Atlantic basin in late July and early August, as even systems tracking well north of Florida can alter local atmospheric conditions and humidity levels that influence airport temperature readings.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Miami on August 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.