توقع: Highest temperature in Munich on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport heads into 18 August with a forecast that keeps the day’s peak in the low 20s Celsius rather than anything extreme. One recent forecast has a high of about 66°F/19°C for Munich on Tuesday, with showers, cloud and a separate view for the airport showing a similar cool, unsettled setup; that sits close to the market’s leading 19–20°C band and makes the current 0% YES pricing look disconnected from the published weather outlook.[1][2][3]

What matters now is whether the daytime showers arrive early enough to suppress the maximum, or whether brief breaks in cloud allow a late-morning lift before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. The main catalysts are the airport-specific observations versus city-centre forecasts, because Munich Airport can run a degree or two different from central Munich, and the market resolves off the recorded Daily Observations table rather than the summary high/low figure.[1][2][4] A recent market note also pointed to ensemble guidance clustering the maximum near 19–20°C, which is the relevant range to watch if the morning stays damp and overcast.[2]

If the airport’s first half of the day stays cloudy with intermittent rain, the higher temperature bands weaken quickly; if sunshine develops earlier than forecast, the upper end of the distribution becomes more live. The key dependency is the timing of the first few observation entries before noon, since a late move after settlement would not count.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Munich on August 18?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.