توقع: Highest temperature in Munich on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport's meteorological station will record the highest temperature reached on 19 August 2026, with settlement determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that peak reading in degrees Celsius.

August in Munich typically sees daily highs between 23–27°C, though heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. Historical August 19th data shows considerable variation: the station has recorded highs ranging from 18°C in cooler years to 29°C during warmer periods. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect temperatures to fall outside the upper ranges offered, though this reflects uncertainty about the specific bands available rather than any meteorological impossibility. Comparable European airport stations show August peaks frequently exceed 25°C, making extreme cold unlikely for this date.

The primary catalyst affecting August 2026 temperatures will be Atlantic weather patterns and any high-pressure systems establishing over central Europe in the weeks preceding mid-August. Seasonal forecasts from national meteorological services typically become reliable 10–14 days before the target date. Traders should monitor European weather models from early August, particularly any signals of continental warming or cooler Atlantic influences. The settlement window closes at midday on 19 August, allowing only morning observations to influence final resolution, which may affect how late-developing heat is captured depending on the exact timing of peak temperatures.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Munich on August 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.