توقع: Highest temperature in Munich on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich is currently experiencing sunny conditions with a maximum daytime temperature of 28°C on 12 July 2026, setting the baseline for the settlement window that closes at noon UTC tomorrow [5][6]. The crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders believe the day’s peak will fall outside the specific range offered, likely because current readings align with typical July averages where highs rarely exceed 29°C [1][2].

Historical data for Munich in July shows daily highs typically range between 22°C and 32°C, rarely exceeding 37°C (87°F) [1][3]. While Germany has recorded national extremes up to 42.6°C in recent years, these spikes occurred in Lower Saxony and are not representative of Munich’s usual summer profile [7][9]. The 0% probability likely reflects a mismatch between the market’s temperature bracket and the station’s standard forecast, which projects a maximum of 29°C for 13 July but only 28°C for today [5].

Traders should monitor the Met Office and BBC Weather updates for any sudden heatwave deviations before the 12:00 UTC settlement cutoff, as a rapid rise above 29°C would invalidate the current pricing [5][6]. No official heatwave announcements have been issued for Bavaria today, and the gentle northeast breeze suggests stable conditions rather than extreme thermal buildup [6]. The resolution depends entirely on the Wunderground record for Munich Airport Station, so any discrepancy between forecast models and actual sensor data will determine the outcome [10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Munich on July 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.