توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks to identify the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 13 August 2026, with resolution determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning the full day's temperature range will be captured before resolution.

New York's August temperatures typically peak in the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit, with historical August averages at LaGuardia around 79°F. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an expectation of unusually cool conditions or uncertainty about the specific temperature bands available in this market's resolution categories. August heat waves in the Northeast have occasionally pushed readings into the low 90s; the summer of 2022 saw multiple days exceeding 90°F across the region, whilst 2023 remained closer to seasonal norms. LaGuardia's microclimate, influenced by proximity to water bodies and urban heat effects, typically runs 1–2°F warmer than broader city averages.

Traders monitoring this market should track mid-summer weather pattern forecasts from late July onwards, particularly Atlantic ridge positioning and tropical system activity that could either suppress or amplify heat. The National Weather Service's extended outlooks, updated weekly through early August, will provide increasingly precise guidance on whether August 2026 tracks toward cooler or warmer-than-average conditions. Any significant weather systems developing in early August could shift temperature trajectories substantially, making real-time forecast updates critical for position management near the settlement window.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on August 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.