توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia’s official high for 3 August will be set by the day’s peak reading on the Wunderground history page, and the crowd is currently split around a warm-but-not-extreme range: 82–83°F leads at 35%, with 84–85°F close behind at 33%[1]. That shape matters because the market is only pricing a narrow band around mid-80s, while a 0% YES implies traders see the settlement as effectively locked into a lower outcome unless the airport briefly spikes above forecast.

The broader frame is a city forecast hovering near the low-to-mid 80s, which is consistent with both the leading market bins and the public guidance captured in the available weather feeds[1][7]. Historic August conditions in New York typically allow for highs in the low 80s, so the market is reading this as a standard summer day rather than a heat-event settlement; recent regional heat has not obviously carried into a consensus above 86°F for this date[8][12].

For traders, the main catalysts are late forecast revisions, cloud cover, wind shifts and any precipitation that suppresses the afternoon maximum, because the market resolves to the highest recorded temperature, not the forecast high[1]. Wunderground’s own rules note that revisions to temperatures within the settlement window are considered until the first datapoint for the following date is published, so the final reading can still move with late updates if the day runs hotter or cooler than expected[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.