توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City’s heat on 7 August settled in the low 80s to low 90s at the airport stations, with Weather Underground’s KOKX climate page showing a **maximum of 91°F** and an observation time of 2:39 pm, while the site’s history page for the date is tied to **JFK Airport Station** reporting **82°F** in the retrieved snapshot.[1][4] That makes the crowd’s **0%** pricing look far more defensive than the actual temperature distribution implied by recent forecasts, especially because the market resolves off the **Daily Observations** table at **LaGuardia Airport Station**, not the summary high/low box.[13]

The useful comparables are the surrounding New York forecasts, which clustered around the upper 80s and low 90s rather than any extreme spike: AccuWeather’s August view showed **87–88°F** on nearby dates and the market snapshot cited models pointing to **90–91°F** under mostly sunny conditions with only a slight thunderstorm risk.[2][3] In other words, the market was never really pricing a deep cold outcome; it was mostly a question of whether LaGuardia would land in the high-80s band or push into the low 90s, which is why the live distribution sat concentrated around those bins rather than the tails.[3][11]

For traders, the key catalysts were the afternoon evolution of heat, cloud cover and any pop-up convection, because a brief shower or sea-breeze shift can trim the day’s top reading without changing the broader hot pattern.[3][15] The resolution mechanics also matter: Weather Underground revisions are allowed until the first datapoint for the following date is published, so late data updates can still move the settled value after the headline number first appears.[3][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on August 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.