توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 19 July 2026 will determine this market's resolution, with the settlement window closing at midday UTC on that date. LaGuardia sits in Queens, exposed to Atlantic maritime influence but subject to urban heat island effects that can elevate readings 2–4°C above surrounding areas. Historical July maxima at the station range from 86°F to 99°F, with the all-time July record of 104°F set in 1966 during an exceptional heat dome.

Mid-July typically marks the onset of peak summer heat in the New York metropolitan area, though the specific date's outcome depends heavily on synoptic patterns. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extremely cold conditions or treating the market as unresolved pending clearer seasonal forecasts. Comparable July 19th readings from recent decades show considerable variability: 2019 peaked at 88°F, 2015 at 91°F, and 2012 at 95°F during an active heat wave period. The Atlantic hurricane season's early activity and upper-level ridge positioning in mid-summer will be critical; a strong Bermuda High typically drives 90s+ readings across the Northeast, whilst a trough pattern can suppress temperatures into the low-to-mid 80s.

Traders should monitor late-June and early-July climate outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, which typically issues 6–10 day forecasts by mid-July. El Niño or La Niña conditions established by spring will influence seasonal steering patterns. Real-time atmospheric data and any tropical system activity in the Atlantic basin during the week preceding July 19 will sharpen temperature expectations significantly.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on July 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.