توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 21 July 2026 will determine the settlement range for this market. LaGuardia sits in Queens, exposed to Atlantic maritime influence that moderates extremes compared to inland New York locations. July is typically the warmest month in the city, with average highs around 27–28°C (81–82°F), though heat waves regularly push readings into the low to mid 30s Celsius (mid-80s to low 90s Fahrenheit).

Historical data from LaGuardia shows July daily highs have reached 34°C (93°F) or above in roughly one-third of years over the past three decades. The station's record for any July day stands at 38°C (100°F), set in 1999 during an exceptional heat event. More typical hot July days cluster between 29–32°C (84–90°F). The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either unusually cool conditions or scepticism about extreme heat materialising on that specific date, despite July's historical volatility.

Traders should monitor Atlantic hurricane season activity and upper-level atmospheric patterns as they develop through June and early July 2026. A tropical system or its remnants could suppress temperatures significantly, whilst a stationary high-pressure system would elevate them. The National Weather Service's extended forecasts, typically reliable 10–14 days out, will sharpen probability estimates in mid-July. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Gulf Stream positioning will influence whether maritime air masses dominate or whether continental heat advection occurs during that window.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.