توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on July 26?

Platform comparison

Market context

The key real-world variable is the **highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport** on 26 July, and the current crowd pricing leaves that reading at **0% for YES**, which implies the market is effectively not assigning weight to the available settlement bucket. That is notable because New York City’s late-July climate usually supports warm, sometimes very warm afternoons: long-run July averages are around **29°C** in the city, and one hourly forecast source for the date points to a daytime maximum near **28°C** with sunny conditions.[3][2]

The closest comparable framing is that the market is being judged against a fairly narrow summer band rather than an extreme-heat outlier. Public market data currently shows **84–85°F** as the leading outcome at **41%**, with **82–83°F** next at **36%**, so traders are clustering around the low-to-mid 80s rather than a major overshoot.[1] That shape is consistent with typical New York July weather, where the distribution often sits near the high 70s to upper 80s, not the 90s-plus bracket that would require a sharp heat surge.[3]

What should move the price is any late update in the forecast track for the New York metro area, especially if a heat advisory, stronger sunshine, or a hotter inland flow develops before the settlement window closes. Watch for changes in the hourly temperature profile, cloud cover and wind, because those are the immediate dependencies for the day’s maximum at LaGuardia; if the broader city enters a heat-emergency pattern, official cooling-centre guidance is usually part of that same escalation.[4][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on July 26?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.