توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is currently experiencing an intense heatwave, with LaGuardia Airport reaching 102°F on Thursday and setting a record for the hottest midnight temperature at 94°F. This extreme warmth has persisted into the night, breaking previous records and signalling a significant departure from typical July conditions. The settlement window for this prediction market closes on 6 July 2026, meaning traders must assess whether this record-breaking heat will continue or subside before the deadline.

Historical data shows that LaGuardia’s July 2026 highs are forecast between 81°F and 99°F, with overnight lows ranging from 68°F to 83°F[6]. However, recent records like the 104°F peak at both LaGuardia and Newark[7] and the 94°F midnight temperature[1][3] suggest that the current 0% YES probability may underestimate the likelihood of temperatures exceeding 74–75°F. The 74–75°F band holds plurality status at 41%, yet normal National Weather Service forecast error spans multiple two-degree intervals, indicating wide uncertainty[2].

Traders should monitor daily weather updates from Wunderground and AccuWeather for real-time temperature readings, as well as any sudden shifts in humidity or cloud cover that could alter the heat trajectory[6]. Recent news from Fox Weather confirms that the heatwave remains persistent, with dews back in the 70s and heat indexes reaching their highest levels[7]. Any announcement of a cooling front or significant precipitation before 6 July could drastically change the outcome, making these dependencies critical for accurate market positioning.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on July 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.