توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is currently enduring an extreme heatwave that has pushed LaGuardia Airport to record-breaking temperatures, with a daily high of 104°F recorded on July 2, 2026, just days before the settlement date for this market[2][7]. The crowd-implied 5% probability for a specific temperature range suggests traders are betting against another historic peak, yet the atmosphere remains saturated with record-setting energy that defies typical seasonal expectations[1].

Historical data frames this low probability as potentially optimistic, given that LaGuardia’s highest recorded temperature of 107°F occurred on July 3, 1966, and the airport recently shattered its midnight temperature record by reaching 94°F[1][7]. The current July 2026 forecast anticipates daily highs between 81°F and 99°F, but the recent persistence of extreme heat indicates that the upper bound of 99°F could be breached if the heatwave continues without interruption[3].

Traders must monitor immediate weather bulletins from the National Weather Service and Wunderground updates for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns that could moderate temperatures before July 7[5]. The primary catalyst is the continuation of the current heatwave, which has already established the station’s highest midnight temperature on record, meaning any further escalation in daytime highs would directly challenge the 5% market assumption[2]. Recent reports confirm that over 71 million people are affected by this East Coast extreme heat, underscoring the systemic nature of the event rather than a fleeting anomaly[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on July 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.