توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on July 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 8 July 2026, a date currently priced by the crowd as having a 0% probability of reaching any specific high range, despite an intense heatwave persisting across the region. Historical precedents from this July show LaGuardia hitting 104°F on 3 July 2026, shattering its 1966 record of 101°F, while midnight temperatures reached a record 94°F on 4 July, breaking the 2013 benchmark of 93°F[1][2]. The average high for July is typically 85°F, yet recent days have consistently exceeded 100°F, with Newark recording 105°F as the second-warmest temperature on record for that station, suggesting the current 0% probability may be an outlier given the active thermal conditions[1][6].

Traders should monitor the daily Wunderground updates for LaGuardia specifically, as the resolution source is the highest temperature recorded for all times on 8 July, and recent data shows a max of 76°F recorded so far, which is unusually low compared to the preceding week’s extremes[8]. The heatwave’s persistence, confirmed by watchers.news reporting the record midnight temperature on 4 July, indicates that a sudden drop to 76°F could be anomalous or a data lag, requiring verification of the station’s real-time feed before the settlement window closes[9]. Key catalysts include any official weather bureau announcements regarding heatwave duration or sudden cloud cover, as the line-up of recent 100°F+ days frames a high expectation for continued warmth, making the current zero probability highly suspect against the backdrop of a 106°F peak recorded in NYC earlier in the month[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on July 8?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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